The need to forecast is more widespread today than it has ever been. In our time-poor,
interconnected world we demand instant service at minimum cost. To deliver this,
service organisations and governments must all make forecasts of future demands
upon them. These forecasts may be for a matter of mere hours ahead, or their period
may be years. Irrespective of the forecasting horizon involved, the underlying
problems and potentially-applicable techniques are the same.
Given the widespread need, it is surprising how little is written to help those
who must make forecasts. The literature that exists is largely targeted at the
inner circle of experts, those who have specialised in the underlying, often
difficult, mathematical and statistical techniques involved. The people with
the most need to make and use forecasts - people who generally have been employed
for their other skills and who are widely distributed in a host of job functions
in a range of organisations - non-specialists are very poorly catered for.
The purpose of this book is to bridge this gap - to give the intelligent and
interested lay-person a comprehensive insight in to the underlying difficulties
involved in the forecasting, the most widely used techniques and the often unpublicised
traps and fallacies associated with them. While it's aim is to inform, it's
real ambition is to improve the forecasting success of all such readers.
About the Author
Dr. Richard Michell is a Chemical engineer by training. He has pent over 35
years in a variety of technical, production, sales and management roles in a
range of public and private manufacturing companies. He is the owner and Managing
Director of Supply Side Pty Ltd - a company that specializes in supply chain
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