The need to forecast is more widespread today than it has ever been. In our time-poor, interconnected world we demand instant service at minimum cost. To deliver this, service organisations and governments must all make forecasts of future demands upon them. These forecasts may be for a matter of mere hours ahead, or their period may be years. Irrespective of the forecasting horizon involved, the underlying problems and potentially-applicable techniques are the same.

Given the widespread need, it is surprising how little is written to help those who must make forecasts. The literature that exists is largely targeted at the inner circle of experts, those who have specialised in the underlying, often difficult, mathematical and statistical techniques involved. The people with the most need to make and use forecasts - people who generally have been employed for their other skills and who are widely distributed in a host of job functions in a range of organisations - non-specialists are very poorly catered for.

The purpose of this book is to bridge this gap - to give the intelligent and interested lay-person a comprehensive insight in to the underlying difficulties involved in the forecasting, the most widely used techniques and the often unpublicised traps and fallacies associated with them. While it's aim is to inform, it's real ambition is to improve the forecasting success of all such readers.

 

About the Author

Dr. Richard Michell is a Chemical engineer by training. He has pent over 35 years in a variety of technical, production, sales and management roles in a range of public and private manufacturing companies. He is the owner and Managing Director of Supply Side Pty Ltd - a company that specializes in supply chain optimisation.